Asian shares drop on euro zone worry, soft U.S. data

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares, oil and the euro fell on Tuesday as investors took profits from recent rallies, while the yen got a respite from broad-based selling.

European markets are seen barely changed, with financial spreadbetters predicting London's FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> would open up nearly flat. But a 0.1 percent gain in U.S. stock futures suggested a firm open on Wall Street. <.l><.eu><.n/>

The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> tumbled 0.9 percent, dragged lower by a steep 1.7 percent fall in Hong Kong shares <.hsi>. The pan-Asian index climbed to a 18-month high on Monday.

Japan's benchmark Nikkei stock average <.n225> closed down 1.9 percent, after scaling a 33-month high on Monday. <.t/>

Positive data from China failed to brighten the bearish mood, after the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> had its worst day since November on Monday on discouraging U.S. factory orders and worries that a potential political shake-up could disrupt the euro zone's efforts to resolve its debt crisis.

Analysts and traders said selling was a correction to markets rallying on receding tail risks such as growing euro zone stability and an improving global economic outlook, while global monetary easing still underpinned sentiment.

"This move in equities ... looks to be a healthy correction, nothing more," said Richard Yetsenga, Head of Global Markets at ANZ Research, adding that downside risk would likely convince major central banks globally to stick to easy policy.

In China, the HSBC services purchasing managers' index rose to a four-month high of 54 in January from December's 51.7, underlining confidence in the world's second-biggest economy, which is expected to grow 8.1 percent this year, off a 13-year low of 7.8 percent hit in 2012.

"The data globally is unquestionably better but the recovery still seems gradual. (China) hit the bottom and they had a bit of a bounce but nothing much else happened. We don't really seem to have preconditions for a much stronger bounce than that (8 percent growth)," Yetsenga said.

The Australian dollar fell 0.3 percent to $1.0405 after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate steady at 3.0 percent, as expected, having just cut in December. Australian shares <.axjo> fell 0.5 percent but trimmed some earlier losses after the RBA's rate decision.

The euro took the brunt of renewed focus on the euro zone problems, having risen 2.3 percent so far this year against the U.S. dollar, up about 5.4 percent against sterling and 1.8 percent higher against the Australian dollar.

The euro eased 0.2 percent to $1.3485, retreating further from Friday's 14-1/2-month peak of $1.3711, ahead of the European Central Bank's policy meeting on Thursday.

"Markets have been increasingly comfortable with European risks over the past few months and are largely not positioned for this increase in political problems. The outcomes in Spain and Italy are far from certain and may represent stumbling blocks for further expansion in risk appetite," Barclays Capital said in a research note.

Spain's opposition party on Sunday called for Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to resign over corruption allegations, which Rajoy denies, pushing Spanish 10-year bond yields to six-week highs.

In Italy, 10-year Italian government bond yields hit their highest since late December, as chances of former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi regaining power raised worries about Rome's ability to fix its fiscal problems.

The yen took a breather, firming from lows against a broad range of currencies.

The dollar steadied at 92.36 yen after scaling its highest since May 2010 of 93.185 on Monday, while the euro eased 0.1 percent to 124.53 yen, off its loftiest since April 2010 of 126.97 hit on Friday.

"Markets are broadly undergoing a correction and the euro is definitely facing profit-taking, given the pace of its climb. Worries about the euro zone debt crisis always remain a downside risk for the euro, and could push it lower to $1.32-$1.33," said Hiroshi Maeba, head of FX trading Japan at UBS in Tokyo. "But the trend is still upward for dollar/yen, cross/yen. The dollar could reach 95 yen by the end of the month."

As long as markets hold out expectations for the Bank of Japan to implement aggressive monetary easing to beat decades of deflation in Japan, the yen will stay pressured. Any correction to the dollar's rise against the yen was also be seen as shallow, with many traders and analysts seeing a firm floor around 87-88 yen.

Italy & Spain bond yields: http://link.reuters.com/gat45t

Asset returns in 2013: http://link.reuters.com/dub25t

China, EU, US Services PMI: http://link.reuters.com/dyh85s

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

Asian credit markets faltered with the plunge in equities, widening the spread on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment-grade index by three basis points.

Brent crude slipped towards $115 per barrel, giving up some of its gains from the last three weeks, on renewed euro zone worries and a slightly firmer dollar.

(Editing by Eric Meijer)

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India Ink: Felling Trees to Save Kashmir's Wullar Lake

A vast shoreline forest of willow trees is being chopped down and dredged out in Kashmir Valley to help restore water levels, fish stocks and wildlife in one of Asia’s largest bodies of freshwater.

The 2.2 million willows that were planted around Wullar Lake and its tributaries, fed by melted snow and ice and rain, suck up water and trap silt. They were planted from 1916 to 2002 under various government programs designed to provide firewood to the region’s residents and to dry out land for farming.

But the plantations have contributed to a halving of the lake’s surface area and destroyed marshes that protected the region from floods and seasonal water shortages. As the lake shrank, villagers’ hauls of fish and water chestnuts declined. The trees drop their leaves into the water, loading the lake with nutrients and debris.

An effort to fell the willows began Jan. 22, when state forest workers took their axes and handsaws to stands along the lake’s northeastern shoreline.

The same arboreal qualities that made the willows so attractive to government officials last century now make their removal a formidable task. The trees grow fast and recover quickly from injury.

“To save the lake you have to cut the trees,” said Ritesh Kumar, a conservation program manager at Wetlands International, which studied the lake and produced a 135-page management plan in 2007 under a state government contract. “But even if you cut them down at the roots, the shoots come back up again.”

After the trees are cut down, their severed roots and the silt they accumulated will be dredged out, a task that is expected to take five to 10 years.

The project is part of a broader effort to restore the tourist-drawing glory of the lakes and rivers that carpet the valley.

About 60 kilometers south of Wullar Lake, in the city of Srinigar, Dal Lake is a popular destination for domestic tourists. It is covered with vacation houseboats and shikaras, small tourist-ferrying vessels that resemble Venetian gondolas. But the lake becomes overly crowded in the summer, it’s heavily polluted and its water levels have fallen.

Tensions between the state government and India’s central government, the threat of terrorist attacks and disputes with nearby Pakistan have kept most visitors away from the remote Wullar Lake. Indian officials hope that restoring the region’s waterways will help woo new tourists to more secluded parts of Kashmir as long-simmering tensions gradually calm down.

But the tree-felling efforts are primarily designed to expand Wullar Lake and resuscitate shoreline marshes. The wetlands soak up water during warmer months as it gushes down from melting snow and glaciers in the Himalayas. They release it in the drier winter months, moderating a year-round flow of water to wildlife and residents, which drains into the River Indus and then south through Pakistan.

The sponge-like qualities of the marshes are becoming more important as the climate changes and upstream glaciers wither, which is increasing melt flows, according to Mr. Kumar. Mr. Kumar’s group found that 70 percent of the marshes surrounding Wullar Lake and its tributaries have disappeared, drained in some places for agriculture and displaced from others by the willows.

“To get flood protection in Srinigar, you need a flood-regulating system in Wullar,” Mr. Kumar said. “If Wullar Lake is not able to perform that soaking function, Srinigar is going to head into a water crisis of extreme order. You get more floods and you get more droughts.”

The Indian government is financing the tree-removal effort, but the 1.2 billion rupees ($22.3 million) so far set aside for the project will meet less than one-third of the total needed to complete the task, according to Abdul Razak, chief executive director of the Wullar Conservation and Management Authority, a state agency.

Mr. Razak said he is confident that the Indian government will eventually fully finance the project. “The money will definitely come,” he said. “They have promised me.”

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Looks Like Alicia Keys Will Play Piano During Super Bowl National Anthem

Alicia Keys woke up on Super Bowl Sunday and apparently had the urge to tweet, sharing a rehearsal photo of herself behind a piano in an empty Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

Keys, who was just named Blackberry’s global creative director, will sing “The Star-Spangled Banner” before kickoff and the photo suggests she’ll do so while playing piano.

[More from Mashable: Super Bowl 2013 Commercials: Watch Them All Here]

If Keys does pound the keys tonight, she will be the first musician to do so during a Super Bowl national anthem performance since Billy Joel in 2007 (see video in gallery below).

Update: Keys also tweeted the red dress she’ll wear during her performance.

[More from Mashable: Beyonce’s Super Bowl Show in 10 Fierce Photos]

Kelly Clarkson sang the national anthem in 2012, a year after Christina Aguilera flubbed the song’s lyrics at the previous Super Bowl (watch below). Other past performers include Whitney Houston, Garth Brooks, Mariah Carey, Faith Hill, Neil Diamond, Diana Ross, Jewel, Harry Connick Jr., Dixie Chicks and Cher.

Keys, a 14-time Grammy winner, will embark on a North American concert tour in March. Her fifth studio album, Girl on Fire, debuted atop the Billboard 200 albums chart in November.

Keys is set to perform the national anthem at 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS.

Click here to view the gallery: Previous National Anthem Singers at the Super Bowl

Image via Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images

This story originally published on Mashable here.

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What Football Game? Beyoncé Rocks the Superdome in Leather & Lace

Stylewatch
Style News Now

02/03/2013 at 09:06 PM ET

One thing was certain going into Super Bowl XLVII: Beyoncé was going to put on a killer halftime show, and she was going to look amazing doing it. And if she practiced until her feet bled, there was no sign of it as she danced in her towering heels.

To strut out onstage during ‘Crazy In Love,’ the star wore an uncharacteristically demure belted lamé mini with wide lapels, but she quickly tore it away to reveal a leather bodysuit with a black lace skirt worn over her signature fishnets. She completed the look with thigh-highs and sexy black booties.

Destiny’s Child fans missing the trio’s epic matching outfits were given a treat when Kelly Rowland and Michelle Williams proved the rumors true, joining Beyoncé onstage for a medley that included ‘Bootylicious’ and ‘Single Ladies.’ Their costumes echoed Bey’s: Rowland wore a revealing V-neck Emilio Pucci bodysuit, while Williams was glam in a tough-girl ribbed leather mini.

And to ensure that Beyoncé’s hair was supremely whip-able (as demonstrated during ‘Baby Boy’ and ‘Halo’), stylist Kim Kimble gave her a “soft glam” look by curling it, then brushing out the curls and smoothing them with Kimble Hair Care Brazilian Nut and Acai serum. She sprayed it with L’Oréal’s classic Elnett hairspray to ensure it wouldn’t budge no matter what the superstar put it through.

Tell us: What did you think of Beyoncé’s Super Bowl outfit — and the Destiny’s Child reunion looks?

–Alex Apatoff

PHOTOS: VOTE ON MORE STAR STYLE HERE!

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Asian shares advance after U.S. jobs, ISM

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares climbed to 18-month highs on Monday after U.S. data showed some promise of a credible recovery but not strong enough to threaten the Federal Reserve's easing plans, while momentum also gained on firmer manufacturing data from Europe and China.

The yen took a break from heavy selling against the U.S. dollar and the euro, but fell to its lowest since August 2008 against the Australian and New Zealand dollars early on Monday on confidence of bold monetary support from the Bank of Japan to overcome the country's stubborn deflation.

More confidence in global economic recovery underpinned oil and copper prices while weighing on safe-haven assets, pushing 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to a nine-month high and 10-year Japanese government bond yields to a three-week high.

European markets are likely to inch higher, with financial spreadbetters predicting London's FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> would open up by around 0.1 percent. U.S. stock futures were little changed, pointing to a steady open on Wall Street. <.l><.eu><.n/>

The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> rose 0.6 percent.

"Prices of risk assets are generally expected to face upward pressures," said Naohiro Niimura, a partner at research and consulting firm Market Risk Advisory. "While risk appetite is returning, prices may become top-heavy for some commodities markets where the relative strength index suggests an overbought territory under the current economic environment."

Brent crude eased 0.2 percent to $116.48 a barrel but held above $116, near a more than four-month high, as data from top consumers United States and China reinforced a view that the global economy was headed for a modest uptick this year.

"We are now seeing a consistent story of moderate growth in the U.S. and China, which is supportive of oil prices in general," said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. "This will probably be a week of consolidation."

U.S. data out on Friday showed payrolls rose modestly last month, with upward revisions for November and December, while the Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity rose to its highest since April.

China followed with positive news over the weekend, saying growth in its official purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the non-manufacturing sector ticked up in January for the fourth straight monthly rise, confirming the world's second-largest economy was showing a modest recovery.

Australian shares <.axjo>, however, lost their grip on early gains to end 0.3 percent lower, pulled down by weaker-than-expected housing data, slow job advertising and technical resistance. They jumped 0.9 percent to a 21-month high on Friday.

NIKKEI MAY BE PEAKING

Japan's benchmark Nikkei stock average <.n225> rose 0.6 percent after climbing to a fresh 33-month high earlier as the yen declined. The index climbed for a fifth straight day. <.t/>

Nikkei has been moving in tandem with the yen's two-month-long losing streak with investors eyeing the change in the BOJ's top personnel in April for clues to the likely extent of the bank's reflationary measures.

"The Nikkei may be nearing its peak for now as we may get a specific name of the most likely candidate for the next BOJ governor soon. That may provide an opportunity to close long dollar/yen positions, while a firming yen will then likely spur investors to book profits on Japanese stocks," said Tetsuro Ii, the chief executive of Commons Asset Management.

The dollar eased 0.2 percent to 92.64 yen after scaling its highest since May 2010 of 92.97 on Friday, while the euro fell 0.3 percent to 126.26 yen, still near its loftiest since April 2010 of 126.97 touched on Friday.

In early Monday trade, the yen plunged to its lowest since August 2008 against both the Australian dollar, at 96.78 yen, and against the New Zealand dollar at 78.74 yen.

The euro inched down 0.1 percent to $1.3628, off Friday's 14-1/2-month peak of $1.3711 hit after data showed euro zone factories had their best month in January in nearly a year.

On Friday, the dollar index measured against a basket of key currencies fell to a 4-1/2-month low of 78.918 <.dxy>. The index was up 0.2 percent on Monday.

As economic optimism rose and concerns about the euro zone's debt difficulties eased, investors took on more risk.

Research provider TrimTabs Investment Research said on Saturday investors poured a record $77.4 billion in new cash into stock mutual funds and exchange-traded funds in January, surpassing the previous monthly record of $53.7 billion in February 2000.

With the rise in equities on recovering appetite for riskier assets, safe-haven appeal waned, pushing up yields of U.S. Treasury bonds. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit a nine-month high of 2.052 percent in Asia on Monday.

A weekly gauge of sentiment in the Japanese government bond market deteriorated sharply, remaining in negative territory for a fifth straight week as rising global appetite for risk sapped demand for bonds, the latest Reuters poll showed on Monday.

(Additional reporting by Ramya Venugopal in Singapore; Editing by Eric Meijer)

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IHT Rendezvous: In Villages, Praying for the Souls of Tibetan Self-Immolators

BEIJING — Since November, when cold winter began in the high Tibetan Plateau, thousands of Tibetan villagers have been gathering daily to pray for the souls of the nearly 100 Tibetans who have burned themselves to death in protest over Chinese rule, in a show of widespread support for the self-immolators among ordinary people, according to witness testimony from a person recently returned from the region.

In traditional winter prayer meetings in villages, they gather to chant “Om mani padme hum,” Tibetan Buddhism’s most important mantra, which speeds a soul toward a good reincarnation, said the person, who witnessed a meeting in the Tibetan region of Qinghai Province in China.

The meetings are a sign of support for the self-immolators and point to widespread dislike among ordinary Tibetans for repressive policies in the region that have turned it into an “open-air prison,” said one ethnic Tibetan police officer in Lhasa, quoted by the witness.

The witness cannot be identified because of the high risk of persecution by the Chinese authorities. But the reliable account of ongoing, severe repression and resentment among Tibetans confirms other reports from the Tibet Autonomous Region or from Tibetan regions in Chinese provinces, where the authorities have been cracking down as they try to stop the spread of the self-immolations.

Chinese courts last week sentenced eight Tibetans for helping self-immolators, The Associated Press reported, including one man to death with a two-year reprieve, and others to between 3 and 12 years in jail, according to Xinhua, the state news agency.

The detail and content of the grass-roots prayer meetings is new.

“The meetings are a traditional thing to do during the winter and are held daily in different villages, and last three days,” the witness said. They are known in Chinese as “fahui,” or dharma meetings (also Buddhist law meetings).

“People drive on motorbikes for long distances, 50 or 60 kilometers, to whichever village is holding a prayer meeting. It’s mostly adults, and they are anywhere between 16 and over 80 years old. As soon as they can drive a motorbike, they’ll go,” the person said.

“Around 1,000 people may attend, often going from one meeting to another without returning home.”

“Their aim is for each meeting to have chanted ‘Om mani padme hum’ 100 million times. There’s no question that they regard the self-immolators as very great, and believe that with the help of their prayers, they will come back as powerful and blessed people,” said the person, who confessed to having reservations about the self-immolations.

Yet, “It’s extremely moving. Because if the self-immolations really were a mistake, how could they get so much support and sympathy form ordinary people?”

As my colleague Jim Yardley reports from India, where many Tibetans live in exile, some there are questioning the self-immolations.

The witness confirmed that, saying: “There is a feeling among some Tibetans,” especially monks or those in the religious hierarchy, “that the Dalai Lama needs to say something to stop it.”

Yet Tibetans who are deeply unhappy with Chinese rule are constrained in how they can protest.

“The problem is that Tibetans are Buddhists. The way things are there now, in other places, people might rise up and set off bombs. But they can’t do that because Buddhists believe you shouldn’t destroy other people’s happiness. So the only way they can protest is by killing themselves,” the person said.

And so the grass-roots support goes on.

The testimony from this person also confirmed reports of a very harsh crackdown under way in Lhasa, seat of the Jokhang, Tibet’s holiest temple, and the Potala Palace, the former home of the Dalai Lama, whom Tibetans revere and who has lived in exile since fleeing the Chinese in 1959.

The crackdown, in response to the self-immolations that began not long after an uprising in Lhasa was crushed in 2008, has turned Tibet into “an open-air prison,” said an ethnic Tibetan police officer. Like some other ethnic Tibetan police officers, he was considering resigning his post, he said.

“Lhasa used to be a sacred place for Buddhism. Now it’s a sacred place for Marxism-Leninism,” he said. “Every day there are meetings where leaders both big and small tell you that maintaining stability,” or “weiwen,” in Chinese, “is the most important thing, what the main tasks in Lhasa are. Lhasa is no longer a Buddhist sacred place,” he said.

“Lhasa is stuffed with police, every 10 paces there are several. I am growing to hate my own work. It’s really not possible to keep doing it. Some have already resigned,” he told the witness.

The crackdown includes forbidding ethnic Tibetans from the outlying regions, like Qinghai or Sichuan Provinces, which lie outside Tibet proper, from traveling to Tibet and is strictly enforced at airports and other transport nodes. Ethnic Han Chinese, however, can pass, effectively making Tibet out of bounds for many Tibetans.

Any Tibetan from outside the region wishing to travel to Lhasa must have a “sponsor” in the city working for the government, the witness said. They must surrender their identity cards and be photographed. Uniformed and plainclothes police officers and military patrol heavily in the city, trying to stop self-immolations.

The ban on ethnic Tibetans from outside Tibet, many of whom have traditionally taken pilgrimages to Lhasa, means that hotels and other businesses in the city have suffered since last May when they were ordered shut to such travelers. A petition is currently circulating from hotel owners asking the government to compensate them financially, “or we will take our request higher.” For reasons of political sensitivity, the petition, which has been seen by this newspaper, cannot be discussed in detail.

It is also extremely difficult for ordinary ethnic Tibetans to get a passport, meaning they cannot travel overseas, the witness said. The person believes the government’s motive is to minimize accounts, like this one, of the harsh repression in the region.

“They don’t want Tibetans leaving the country and telling the world what’s happening there. Hundreds of people leaving and telling the world is very different from one or two,” the person said.

With the Lunar New Year approaching, the prayer meetings will soon be scaled back, as farm work and animal husbandry resume. For now, though, the villagers are praying hard for the souls of the dead, millions of mantras circulating in the thin air of the plateau.

“They say, we want their lives to come back. We want world peace. They pray for Tibet to have peaceful and happy days, and the world, too,” the person said.

Said the police officer: “Living in this tightly controlled atmosphere is unbearable. There’s no feeling of happiness. But maybe it’s good this way, it may speed up the day when the situation has to change. But I don’t have the courage to self-immolate. Maybe after I retire I’ll go to Beijing and petition.”

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5 Fascinating Facts We Learned From Reddit This Week

Click here to view the gallery: Reddit Facts 2/2

If you’ve ever wanted to learn how to game the French lottery of 1728 (and who hasn’t, amirite?), you’ve come to the right place. This week’s edition of Reddit Facts has some delightful tidbits about the Fab Four, a famous photograph and a funky fruit.

[More from Mashable: 10 Quirky Etsy Finds to Celebrate Groundhog Day]

Homepage image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.

[More from Mashable: 10 Valentine’s Day Gifts for the Special Geek in Your Life]

This story originally published on Mashable here.

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Busy Philipps Feels No Pressure to Bounce Back After Baby

David Livingston/Getty

Busy Philipps may be willing to dish out style advice to fellow expectant mamas — but she’s not about to start breaking out the postpartum weight loss lectures.

Currently pregnant with her second child, the Cougar Town star admits that while her celebrity status opens her up for public scrutiny, she’s not planning a big bounceback after baby.

“Like most things in this business, I think that you have to do what’s right for you and you can’t be too concerned about what some magazine is going to write about you,” Philipps, 33, tells HuffPost Celebrity.

“We’re in a business where a lot of people are blessed with pretty incredible bodies, that they work hard for or comes naturally, and not everybody has the same body.”

According to Philipps, staying healthy is priority during pregnancy and women “should be given a break” when it comes to packing on the extra pounds — especially by those dubious doctors!

“It’s interesting when people make comments about celebrities’ weight gain or lack of weight gain as if they’re a medical professional that’s treating that celebrity,” she notes. “Like, ‘This doctor does not treat Jessica Simpson, but thinks her weight is unhealthy.’ If you don’t treat her, then how do you know?”

After the arrival of daughter Birdie Leigh, now 4, the actress took her time regaining her post-baby bod — a journey, she says, lasted almost a year — preferring to instead instill a positive attitude (and approach) in her little girl.

“I wanted to be healthy for her and have a healthy body image so that she hopefully grows up to see that her self worth isn’t defined by how thin she is,” Philipps explains.

“Thrilled to be expecting another baby with husband Marc Silverstein, Philipps wasn’t sure if expanding their tight-knit trio was even in the cards for the couple. No one, however, was more ecstatic over the news than the big sister-to-be, whose wish is finally coming true.

“My daughter is very excited … it’s actually something that she has asked for for quite some time,” she says. “My husband and I were on the fence about whether or not we were going to add to our family, but now that we’re on our road, we’re really excited.”

– Anya Leon

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"Great Rotation"- A Wall Street fairy tale?

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street's current jubilant narrative is that a rush into stocks by small investors has sparked a "great rotation" out of bonds and into equities that will power the bull market to new heights.

That sounds good, but there's a snag: The evidence for this is a few weeks of bullish fund flows that are hardly unusual for January.

Late-stage bull markets are typically marked by an influx of small investors coming late to the party - such as when your waiter starts giving you stock tips. For that to happen you need a good story. The "great rotation," with its monumental tone, is the perfect narrative to make you feel like you're missing out.

Even if something approaching a "great rotation" has begun, it is not necessarily bullish for markets. Those who think they are coming early to the party may actually be arriving late.

Investors pumped $20.7 billion into stocks in the first four weeks of the year, the strongest four-week run since April 2000, according to Lipper. But that pales in comparison with the $410 billion yanked from those funds since the start of 2008.

"I'm not sure you want to take a couple of weeks and extrapolate it into whatever trend you want," said Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup. "We have had instances where equity flows have picked up in the last two, three, four years when markets have picked up. They've generally not been signals of a continuation of that trend."

The S&P 500 rose 5 percent in January, its best month since October 2011 and its best January since 1997, driving speculation that retail investors were flooding back into the stock market.

Heading into another busy week of earnings, the equity market is knocking on the door of all-time highs due to positive sentiment in stocks, and that can't be ignored entirely. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> ended the week about 4 percent from an all-time high touched in October 2007.

Next week will bring results from insurers Allstate and The Hartford , as well as from Walt Disney , Coca-Cola Enterprises and Visa .

But a comparison of flows in January, a seasonal strong month for the stock market, shows that this January, while strong, is not that unusual. In January 2011 investors moved $23.9 billion into stock funds and $28.6 billion in 2006, but neither foreshadowed massive inflows the rest of that year. Furthermore, in 2006 the market gained more than 13 percent while in 2011 it was flat.

Strong inflows in January can happen for a number of reasons. There were a lot of special dividends issued in December that need reinvesting, and some of the funds raised in December tax-selling also find their way back into the market.

During the height of the tech bubble in 2000, when retail investors were really embracing stocks, a staggering $42.7 billion flowed into equities in January of that year, double the amount that flowed in this January. That didn't end well, as stocks peaked in March of that year before dropping over the next two-plus years.

MOM AND POP STILL WARY

Arguing against a 'great rotation' is not necessarily a bearish argument against stocks. The stock market has done well since the crisis. Despite the huge outflows, the S&P 500 has risen more than 120 percent since March 2009 on a slowly improving economy and corporate earnings.

This earnings season, a majority of S&P 500 companies are beating earnings forecast. That's also the case for revenue, which is a departure from the previous two reporting periods where less than 50 percent of companies beat revenue expectations, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Meanwhile, those on the front lines say mom and pop investors are still wary of equities after the financial crisis.

"A lot of people I talk to are very reluctant to make an emotional commitment to the stock market and regardless of income activity in January, I think that's still the case," said David Joy, chief market strategist at Columbia Management Advisors in Boston, where he helps oversee $571 billion.

Joy, speaking from a conference in Phoenix, says most of the people asking him about the "great rotation" are fund management industry insiders who are interested in the extra business a flood of stock investors would bring.

He also pointed out that flows into bond funds were positive in the month of January, hardly an indication of a rotation.

Citi's Levkovich also argues that bond investors are unlikely to give up a 30-year rally in bonds so quickly. He said stocks only began to see consistent outflows 26 months after the tech bubble burst in March 2000. By that reading it could be another year before a serious rotation begins.

On top of that, substantial flows continue to make their way into bonds, even if it isn't low-yielding government debt. January 2013 was the second best January on record for the issuance of U.S. high-grade debt, with $111.725 billion issued during the month, according to International Finance Review.

Bill Gross, who runs the $285 billion Pimco Total Return Fund, the world's largest bond fund, commented on Twitter on Thursday that "January flows at Pimco show few signs of bond/stock rotation," adding that cash and money markets may be the source of inflows into stocks.

Indeed, the evidence suggests some of the money that went into stock funds in January came from money markets after a period in December when investors, worried about the budget uncertainty in Washington, started parking money in late 2012.

Data from iMoneyNet shows investors placed $123 billion in money market funds in the last two months of the year. In two weeks in January investors withdrew $31.45 billion of that, the most since March 2012. But later in the month money actually started flowing back.

(Additional reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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India Ink: Selling ‘Midnight’s Children’ in India

“Am I allowed to mention the Rushdie word?” quipped the historian and author Tom Holland at the recently concluded Jaipur Literature Festival. Mr. Holland was speaking of Salman Rushdie’s 1981 novel, “Midnight’s Children,” a book he called a contemporary classic.

His comment alluded to the political baggage attached to Mr. Rushdie in India, the country of his birth, because of his novel “The Satanic Verses,” which is banned in India and sparked a death threat against him from Iran in 1989. Last year, Mr. Rushdie canceled a scheduled appearance at the Jaipur Literary Festival because of an assassination threat against him in connection with the book.

Controversy over Mr. Rushdie flared up again this week, as he came to India to promote the film “Midnight’s Children,” directed by the award-winning filmmaker Deepa Mehta and based upon Mr. Rushdie’s acclaimed novel by the same name. Beginning on the eve of India’s independence from British rule, “Midnight’s Children” follows the country through its early years as a new nation through the lives of the children born at the stroke of midnight on Aug. 15, 1947.

On Wednesday, Mr. Rushdie was scheduled to attend a publicity event in Kolkata for the movie, along with Ms. Mehta. However, the visit was called off at the last minute, giving rise to speculation that the state government had canceled the visit because of pressure from Muslim groups.

On Friday, Mr. Rushdie said as much on Twitter. “The simple fact is that the Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee ordered the police to block my arrival,” he said. In a statement issued Friday, he clarified that he had been planning to take part in a session at the Kolkata Literary Meet, where he had been invited by the organizers to appear as “a surprise guest.” He also said that a police source had shared his itinerary with the press, thereby inciting trouble.

“What is happening in India nowadays is an accumulating scandal and a growing disgrace to this great nation,” said Mr. Rushdie in the statement. “I can only hope that the people of India have the will to demand that such assaults on freedom cease once and for all.”

However, Mr. Rushdie was able to attend the premiere of the film at Mumbai’s PVR Cinema in Phoenix Mills on Thursday. The theater was lined with nearly 50 police officers standing guard, and two truckloads of officers sat outside the gates of the mall complex.

The premiere was well attended by the actors in the movie, including Shriya Saran, Shahana Goswami, Kulbhushan Kharbanda and Rahul Bose, and they were in a celebratory mood.

“I think that this is a bit of good news that in the middle of dark times for our creative freedom that this film is releasing here,” Mr. Bose said at the premiere. “I am sentimentally invested in the movie because it’s a movie I was supposed to be part of in a production 15 years ago. That one was stymied at the last moment, but this one wasn’t. And I’m playing a small role, but it’s nice to be part of it.”

As the crowd vied to get a view of Mr. Rushdie as he entered, he gamely posed for photographs with fans and greeted friends and well-wishers. Also in attendance were the actress Nandita Das, the director and screenwriter Dev Benegal, the film director and screenwriter Sudhir Mishra, the cricketer Yuvraj Singh, the columnist Anil Dharker and the actor Arunoday Singh.

While film adaptations of books, particularly those considered classics, are always tricky, “Midnight’s Children” elicited a largely positive response. “I think Midnight’s Children is a pretty impossible book to make a film of, and this one is a fantastic effort,” said the Indian stage and film actor Gerson da Cunha after the screening. “I just hope that it works in India because, well, it is a difficult film.”

The performances by each of the actors drew wide praise from the audience, who clapped enthusiastically at the end of the film. “The search for identity as depicted by the actors was very touching,” said Dolly Thakore, a veteran theater actress.

“Midnight’s Children,” which had its worldwide premiere at the Toronto Film Festival in September, is opening in India in 250 theaters and 15 cities, a wider rollout than in Canada in November (120 screens) and in Britain in late December (180 screens). A release in the United States is slated for April.

Distributed in India by PVR Pictures, the film is opening across a “good number of screens,” said the company’s vice president of marketing, Arun Nair.

“As a nondubbed, nonaction film, it’s a big opening for an English film,” Mr. Nair added, noting in comparison that other similar English-language films, like last year’s “Killing Them Softly,” starring Brad Pitt, opened in only 75 screens. (Big-budget Hollywood movies, typically dubbed in local languages, open to much larger audiences. “The Amazing Spider-Man,” for example, opened in 1,250 screens while “The Avengers” opened in 1,100.)

While there was initially some uncertainty about the film finding a distributor in India, when PVR purchased the movie rights in October, Kamal Gianchandani, the company’s president, told Reuters that he was not expecting any trouble. “We don’t think the film is controversial,” he said.

Apart from the canceled Kolkata event, “Midnight’s Children” seems to have elicited a muted response from the public so far, which is surprising, considering Mr. Rushdie’s involvement and the book’s criticism of Indira Gandhi and her imposition of emergency powers in India between 1975 and 1977. Three years after the book was published, Mrs. Gandhi sued for defamation in Britain, over a single sentence that implied she was responsible for her husband’s death. The case was settled out of court, with Mr. Rushdie deleting the sentence.

The Congress Party, which reveres Mrs. Gandhi as an icon, has said nothing publicly. The film passed the censors without any cuts.

The movie was shot in Sri Lanka, somewhat secretly, said Ms. Mehta, who has been the target of protests by Hindu fundamentalists. “He’s got the Muslims, and I’ve got the Hindus,” she told the The Globe and Mail two years ago. Production was briefly interrupted because the Iranians protested, but was allowed to go ahead after the intervention of the Sri Lankan president. The filmmakers changed the title to “Winds of Change” for the remainder of the shoot.

A somewhat stealthy marketing strategy by PVR Pictures appears to have paid off for “Midnight’s Children,” which opened throughout the country Friday with little incident. “With Salman Rushdie, we did not want a repeat of Jaipur 2012,” said Mr. Nair.

“Controversies only create awareness for a film. What we were aiming for was ‘intent to watch,’ ” he said. “We avoided all controversy by keeping his plans in India under wraps. We targeted specific media, the six news channels and English-language press and specific cities.”

In Mumbai earlier this week, the venue for a promotional event for the movie was shifted from the Landmark bookstore at Infiniti Mall, in suburban Andheri, to south Mumbai’s National Center for the Performing Arts. Ashutosh Pandey, the chief operating officer of Landmark, said in a press release that the move was due to “security concerns.”

The new venue was the Little Theater, a 114-seater tucked inside the center’s compound, with plenty of police personnel and plainclothes officers in attendance. Anil Dharker, who heads Literature Live, a local literary festival, later said that he was asked to organize a new venue four days before the scheduled promotional gig. “I knew the N.C.P.A. would support it. I said, ‘We will keep it for people only I know.’ We sent out no invites.”

Mr. Rushdie may be the sharpest assessor of why “Midnight’s Children” appears to have avoided attracting the screaming hordes. Last March, he told a spellbound audience at a conclave organized by the news magazine India Today: “I have this theory that the Indian electorate is smarter than the politicians and sees through them. Yes, people can sometimes be whipped up, as they were by the religious extremists in Jaipur. But how many people? How big are these mobs? How representative are they? These attacks, whether upon my book or people’s films or plays or paintings or whatever, these are not things that come from the bottom up.”

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